Kuwait's new ruler to seek stability among fractious, powerful neighbours

 Kuwait's new ruler in waiting may find it harder than his predecessor to uphold his country's mediating role between rival Gulf powers, if only because he lacks his late brother's decades of experience as a conciliator during a polarised region.

Sheikh Nawaf al-Ahmad al-Sabah, named prince of the oil-producing country in 2006, is in line to succeed his brother Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad, whose death was announced on Tuesday.

Under Nawaf, 83, Kuwait is probably going to still work for stability by staying on good terms with its often quarrelling, powerful neighbours, rather than seeking a leadership role within the region, diplomats say.

But he lacks the negotiating skills of the late emir, who spent four decades as Kuwait's top diplomat, earning the respect of his neighbours for rebuilding ties within the Middle East after Iraq's 1990 invasion of his small but hugely wealthy country.

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Swathes of the region remain mired in conflict and strife.

Saudi Arabia and Iran are locked in proxy wars across the region. US-Iranian animosity reached historic heights in January when the us killed top Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani during a drone strike in Baghdad.

Sheikh Sabah tried until his death to finish a Gulf row that has seen Riyadh and its allies boycott Qatar since mid-2017.

While policy is unlikely to vary under Nawaf, OPEC member Kuwait may lose gravitas internationally, two sources on the brink of the ruling family and one among the diplomats said.

“He doesn't have the experience, the willingness for policy ,” one among two sources said. “Inside, Kuwait will stay strong, but outside it'll be weaker.”

Sheikh Nawaf largely kept a coffee profile as prince and also during previous roles as defence minister, at the time of the 1990 invasion, and interior minister. he's referred to as a founding father of the country's National Guard and has attempted to create security cooperation with Arab states.

He had been widely perceived as a surprise choice by the emir within the succession line in 2006, and a reluctant ruler, who was encouraged to simply accept the role by senior members of the 250-year-old Al Sabah dynasty, said the diplomat.

Royal jostling

Diplomats and analysts expect he will delegate a bigger portion of state affairs to his prince due to his low-key style and his age. this suggests that the person nominated by family consensus as his heir, a post which normally also holds the post of prime minister, are going to be closely watched.

Dozens of senior Al Sabah relations are jostling for position in anticipation of the selection of prince , a task that traditionally manages the government's often difficult relationship with parliament.

A handful of unofficial potential candidates include the late emir's 72-year-old eldest son, Sheikh Nasser Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah, consistent with the sources on the brink of the ruling family and diplomats.

Business-minded Nasser entered the senior ranks of the cupboard in 2017 as defence minister but lost the work last year after the govt quit during a row with the country's influential elected parliament and amid royal infighting.

Another candidate is former prime minister Sheikh Nasser al-Mohammad al-Sabah, a nephew of the emir who stepped down in 2011 after lawmakers threatened to question him on corruption allegations, but had remained on the brink of the emir.

Sheikh Meshal al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah, deputy chief of the National Guard , could even be within the running.

None of the lads — the prince and his potential successors — have the diplomatic experience of the emir.

Maintaining balance

Any potential successor will need to act swiftly to tackle domestic issues after their ascension, like the government's often fractious ties with parliament and jostling within the ranks of the Al Sabah, leaving less time for policy .

Kuwait's government is seeking to prop up its finances amid low oil prices and therefore the coronavirus pandemic, while depleting its General reserve account to plug a deficit .

Waiting within the wings may be a new generation of royals: senior royal court official Sheikh Mohammad al-Mubarak al-Sabah and international sports figure Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahad al-Sabah, who had been sidelined over allegations of political meddling within the royal system and corruption, which he denies.

Kuwait has the foremost open form of government within the Gulf, with parliament wielding power to pass laws and question ministers, although most senior posts are occupied by Al Sabah members.

Friction between the cupboard and therefore the assembly has led to frequent reshuffles or dissolution of parliament, holding up crucial investment and economic reforms.

Sheikh Nawaf's discreet manner and openness to different points of view are going to be essential for maintaining balance, diplomats say, adding he could give more room for lawmakers to question senior ministers and permit some top cabinet posts to be held by people outside the Sabah family.